In This Issue: Modest Job Growth—Still No Boom -Gains in employment, the ISM manufacturing index and factory orders reported this week support our view for modest economic growth for this year, but there is no sign that elevated first quarter gains will be sustained. -The labor market added 88,000 nonfarm jobs in March, with improvement […]
Continue ReadingIn This Issue: Q1 In the Books and Still Set for Decent Gain · Personal spending posted a solid gain in February as consumers shake off January’s hit to income. Income is, however, recovering, up 1.1 percent in February. · February durable goods orders rose 5.7 percent on the back of stronger transportation orders. Shipments […]
Continue ReadingIn This Issue: Housing Should Continue to Add to Economic Growth As expected, the FOMC kept rates unchanged, but much of the uncertainty has been centered on the Fed’s open-ended bond purchases. Although the statement did not provide explicit guidance, the policy paragraph did provide a hint. We suspect, if the recent pickup in the […]
Continue ReadingIt’s Beginning to Feel a Lot Like a Recovery · This week’s economic reports had a much more normal recovery feel to them, particularly the stronger-than-expected retail sales report and hotter-than-expected inflation figures. · The relentless march of the equity markets has raised concerns as to whether monetary policy is fueling another bubble. The rise, […]
Continue ReadingIn This Issue: Are Things Looking Up? Nonfarm payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 236,000 jobs in February. Average hours worked and earnings also rose, which bodes well for income growth. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent on the back of an increase in household employment and a drop in the labor […]
Continue ReadingPositive Week: Encouraging for Q1 GDP Growth · As had been widely expected, fourth quarter real GDP was revised from a slight negative to a slight positive on a better-than-initially-thought performance from business fixed investment and trade. · In spite of the ongoing policy headwinds, the U.S. economy is experiencing better performance out of the […]
Continue ReadingVIX at Five-Year Low & 2013 High, All in the Same Week *With a relatively positive run for equity markets and not much in the way of volatility, the CBOE volatility index, or VIX, started this week at more than a five-year low. *Before the week was out, however, the VIX soared more than 20 […]
Continue ReadingIn this issue: Shaking Off Hurricane Sandy · Employers added 146,000 jobs in November, which squarely beat expectations that looked for hiring to be hit by Hurricane Sandy. The jobless rate fell to 7.7 percent as fewer people looked for work. · Activity in the manufacturing sector looks to have weakened in November, with the […]
Continue ReadingClick Here for a PDF of the Full Commentary In this issue: Strong Q3 Growth Sets Up a Weak Fourth Quarter · Third quarter economic growth was revised higher this week to 2.7 percent from an originally reported 2.0 percent. Increased inventory building, along with stronger support from the trade balance, helped to […]
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