Growth on Track Despite Mixed Data · The May retail sales report came in better than expected, with sales rising 0.6 percent. Core retail sales were somewhat softer at 0.3 percent, which followed a downwardly revised figure for April, and indicate a more modest pace of consumer spending in the second quarter. · Small […]
Continue ReadingLosing Steam, Even With Larger Payroll Gains · May’s larger-than-expected nonfarm employment gain did little to dispel the notion that economic activity is decelerating in the second quarter. · Lower paying occupations, including retail trade, the leisure and hospitality sector, temporary staffing and home health care, accounted for 103,000 of the 175,000 net new jobs […]
Continue ReadingSofter Consumer Spending to Start Q2 · The second look at Q1 GDP growth showed little change from the first release. The economy grew at a 2.4 percent annualized rate. Personal consumption was revised slightly higher. · Personal incomes were flat in April as was wage and salary growth. Personal spending contracted for the month, […]
Continue ReadingBernanke Indicates No Easing Up on the QE Gas Pedal · FOMC Chairman Bernanke gave no indication of scaling back asset purchases in his testimony this week and continued to emphasize weakness in the labor market and low inflation. · The housing market’s recovery marches on, with sales activity increasing in April. Rising inventories for […]
Continue ReadingA Mixed Bag for Q2 · Economic data this week was rather mixed, with positive signs out of the consumer, but faltering signs out of the industrial sector and housing in April. · Retail sales increased 0.1 percent in April; however, the headline number understates the strength in sales. Declining prices at the pump drove […]
Continue ReadingFew Surprises in a Slow Data Week • There were few surprises in this week’s light schedule of economic releases. The monthly JOLTs employment figures showed hiring picking up modestly, but voluntary separations remain near recession lows, signaling a lack of confidence in the job market. • Consumer credit rose much less than expected in […]
Continue Reading2013 Economic Growth: Soft in the Middle · The April employment report indicated that nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 and the unemployment rate edged slightly lower to 7.5 percent. · Personal income and spending data for March indicated that consumers continued to spend even with only modest increases in income growth. · The ISM Manufacturing […]
Continue ReadingAnother Spring, Another Slowdown in the Economy GDP rose at a 2.5 percent annualized rate in the first quarter. The marked acceleration from the fourth quarter was fueled by strong consumer spending and farm inventories. Durable goods orders came in lower than expected in March, with orders falling 5.7 percent. The pullback in orders was […]
Continue ReadingMixed Economic Indicators Released During the Week • Gold prices on Monday showed the largest one-day drop in 30 years. With gold prices plummeting, some observers are questioning the path of monetary policy and inflation. We do not think the market believes a near-term change in monetary policy is looming. • The latest reading on […]
Continue ReadingAnother Spring Slowdown? · NFIB’s Small Business Index slipped 1.3 points in March with fewer businesses expecting sales increases and few planning to hire new workers. · Inflation continues to be well contained as both the import price index and the producer price index indicated that prices have begun to edge downward. · March retail […]
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