US Outlook Report: September FOMC Rate Hike – A Go or No Go Several prominent Fed governors have tried in recent weeks to prepare markets for a near-term 0.25 percentage point rate hike, citing a robust labor market and the approach of full-employment as reasons to start lifting rates again. Job openings hit a new […]
Continue ReadingWeak Growth in 1H 2016- What’s Next? The advance estimate of Q2 GDP revealed a modest improvement in U.S. economic growth to a 1.2 annualized rate up from a revised sluggish 0.8 percent growth pace in the first quarter. Real GDP growth averaged just 1.0 in the first half of 2016. The initial estimate of […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: A Few Breaks in the Clouds this Week Financial volatility continues to calm in the aftermath of the U.K. vote. The S&P VIX index, a measure of expected stock market volatility, has hit new lows in recent days, as the S&P 500 has hit record highs. We think a combination of positive […]
Continue ReadingLOGIN CREATE AN ACCOUNT June 2016 California Exports Slump The nominal value of California’s export trade slid lower in the latest numbers. Year-over-year growth is unlikely to return until economic conditions improve among the state’s principal foreign trading partners… Read Full Analysis Now SHARE: Meet Our Experts Christopher Thornberg Christopher Thornberg is widely credited as […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West US Outlook Report for June 3, 2016 The mixed picture of U.S. economic growth continued this week and the May jobs number was more than disappointing. April construction spending plunged on weaker public and non-residential construction activity, while regional manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes and the national ISM manufacturing index remained moribund […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Setting Up for a Better Second Half Sometimes teams that play a lackluster first-half go into the locker-room at half-time and emerge so energized they play like a completely different team. Now, nearly two-thirds of the way through the second quarter the U.S. economy is about to go into the locker-room for […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Housing Market Doing Just Fine A number of indicators will be released next week that will reveal the latest developments in the U.S. housing market. Despite the scary drop in housing starts and permits last month, the upcoming housing data for April should appear more reassuring. The current low interest-rate environment, healthy […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s FOMC Statement – April 27, 2016 The FOMC held rates steady today, as expected, holding the Fed funds target rate at 0.25 to 0.50% The Fed still in wait and see mode in my view. The FOMC is holding its future interest rate hike intentions and timing close to its […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Gearing Up For the Big Week Ahead Next week will be a big one for investors. A full plate of tier-one economic indicators – from March durable goods orders to the advanced estimate of first-quarter GDP – are due to be released. If that isn’t enough to get your engine reviving, […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Retail Sales Slip Again in March March retail sales came in lower-than-expected, down 0.3 percent, ending a disappointing first quarter for consumer spending. The consensus expectation for the headline figure was for a slight increase of 0.1 percent, considering sustained improvement in other areas of the economy and vanishing effects of the […]
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