Economics Group – Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary U.S. Review More Evidence of a Tightening Labor Market While small business confidence dipped in June, the index remains above the range where it appeared to be stuck between 2011 and 2013. Firms are still looking to hire, with the NFIB hiring plans index climbing 2 points and […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary U.S. Review A Mostly Disappointing Week for Economic Data · The third look at first quarter GDP showed that the economy contracted at a 2.9 percent pace. A sizable portion of the downward revision was due to softer-than-estimated consumer spending for the quarter. · Housing market data came […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary U.S. Review Inflationary Pressures Mounting, But Fed Holds Tight • Both headline and core CPI posted large gains in May. Meanwhile, the Fed downplayed rising inflation and generally maintained its previous outlook for monetary policy. • Industrial production came in stronger than expected, making the factory sector look […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary U.S. Review Mixed Results from Economic Data Releases This Week Retail sales increased a lower-than-expected 0.3 percent in May, with the underlying details suggesting a slower pace of sales growth than originally estimated. Discretionary spending categories such as general merchandise, clothing stores and restaurants posted the largest declines. […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary U.S. Review No Spring Swoon Going into June Payrolls added 217,000 workers in May, recouping all of the jobs lost during the recession, while the unemployment rate remained at 6.3 percent. The factory sector continues to make improvements with the ISM manufacturing index rising in May and factory […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group – Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary U.S. Review Economy Contracts in Q1, Stronger Growth Ahead · Revised Q1 GDP figures showed that the economy contracted 1.0 percent, pulled down by weather effects along with much slower inventory building and weaker export growth. · Durable goods orders for April rose 0.8 percent following a 3.6 […]
Continue ReadingU.S. Review As Good as It Gets. As Good as Can Be Expected. April’s housing data showed some modest improvement but remain disappointing relative to expectations at the start of the year. New home sales rose 6.4 percent in April, while sales of existing homes rose 1.3 percent. Mortgage applications for the purchase of a […]
Continue ReadingMixed Data Unlikely to Change Fed’s Outlook · Although some indicators, such as retail sales and industrial production, came in lower than expected, there is little reason to expect the Fed to alter its current course of monetary policy. · Inflationary pressures picked up in April, with both the PPI and CPI accelerating in the […]
Continue ReadingFrom Bad to Worse: A Contraction in Q1 GDP Growth? · The trade balance data this week, for March, showed that the trade deficit was $40.4 billion, suggesting that all else equal, there will likely be a downward revision to the already-soft 0.1 percent GDP growth in Q1. · The ISM Non-Manufacturing index indicated that […]
Continue ReadingFarewell to Winter Weather Woes · Nonfarm payrolls bid adieu to the sluggish pace of employment growth during the winter months. Payrolls surged by 288,000 jobs in April with upward revisions to February and March and the unemployment fell to 6.3 percent. The drop in the unemployment rate, however, was due to a significant decline […]
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