Growth is Still on the Slow Track · Economic growth clearly remains on the slow track, and inflation expectations continue to diminish. Views on the Fed were temporarily swayed by release of the October FOMC meeting minutes but market participants still expect the Fed to hold off tapering until March 2014. · Retail sales […]
Continue ReadingA Little Less Shine on the Data · The trade gap increased more than expected in September as exports slipped 0.2 percent and imports rose 1.2 percent. The print suggests trade should be more neutral for the second estimate of GDP in the third quarter based on what the BEA had previously assumed. · Small […]
Continue ReadingWhat Government Shutdown? · Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside as the federal government shutdown did little to deter private-sector employers from hiring more workers. However, furloughed workers pushed the unemployment rate higher in the household survey. · Despite a strong headline number, the details of the third quarter GDP numbers were more disappointing. Consumers […]
Continue ReadingEconomic Data Releases Largely Weaker than Expected · Following the impasse in Washington, we received a flurry of economic data this week. However, many of the releases came in weaker than expected as quibbling in the beltway has led to uncertainty. The recent soft economic data almost ensures the Federal Reserve will not announce tapering […]
Continue ReadingModesty Is Quite Unbecoming in the Recovery · September’s employment numbers were once again underwhelming, with more than two years of modest payroll growth continuing into the autumn months. · Residential construction bounced back in August, reflecting better weather conditions. Construction spending improved in August, and a surge in existing home sales over […]
Continue ReadingTurn Those Machines Back On! · After the second week of limited economic indicator releases and watching the state of the federal government in suspended animation, it is easy to empathize with Mortimer Duke in Trading Places (1983) after market close on the commodities trading floor. · The frustration is being felt by businesses as […]
Continue ReadingU.S. Government Shutdown Delays Federal Data · The federal government shutdown on Tuesday as Congress was unable to agree on a budget for fiscal year 2014. Negotiations remain at an impasse and attention has shifted to whether Washington will be able to avert hitting the debt ceiling, which is expected to be reached on […]
Continue ReadingData Continues to Support Modest Growth in Q3 · Personal income rose 0.4 percent in August after increasing 0.2 percent in July. Personal spending activity remained modest, rising 0.3 percent. The saving rate edged higher to 4.6 percent, the first increase since May. · Durable goods orders rose a slight 0.1 percent in August after […]
Continue ReadingIn This Issue: Fed Throws Surprise Party for Markets · The FOMC surprised markets by continuing the current monthly pace of asset purchases at $85 billion. The bond market rallied, while equity indexes reached fresh highs. · Industrial production came in a tad weaker than expected, but data on manufacturing production pointed toward further firming […]
Continue ReadingConsumers and Businesses Remain Cautious · Retail sales growth slowed in August after July’s numbers were revised upward. Autos returned as one of the primary drivers of growth while sales of building materials, clothing and sporting goods declined. · The NFIB Small Business Optimism index remained relatively flat over the month. Sales and profits over […]
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