Monetary Policy: Continuity—For Now · In her testimony to the Congress, the new Fed Chair called for continuity and suggested that the unemployment rate alone could not provide an adequate picture of the labor market. · Inclement weather continues to restrain the economy, with weaker retail sales and more evidence of adverse employment effects. · […]
Continue ReadingIs the Economy in a Freeze? · Businesses added 113,000 jobs in January, which was fewer than expected. Bitter cold weather and storms looked to have had little effect on the data based on the number of people who reported not working due to weather. The unemployment rate ticked down to 6.6 percent as more […]
Continue ReadingShall We Do the Real GDP Shuffle? · Real GDP posted its second consecutive quarterly above-trend gain in the fourth quarter, rising at a 3.2 annual percent pace. Much of the gain in the fourth quarter was concentrated in personal consumption and net exports, as concerns over a pullback from the outsized contribution from inventories […]
Continue ReadingThe Recovery Remains in the New Year An uptick in the Leading Economic Index points to slightly stronger future growth, despite the most recent payroll survey adding little to the headline number. The housing recovery stumbled in the face of headwinds from higher mortgage rates but managed to turn itself around in December with […]
Continue ReadingGradual Improvement Remains the Name of the Game · Retail sales rose 0.2 percent in December, following a downwardly revised print of 0.4 percent in November. A drop in auto sales held down the headline, but excluding autos and gasoline, sales rose 0.6 percent. · After jumping 23.1 percent November, housing starts fell 9.8 […]
Continue ReadingEmployment Throws a Curve Ball After Fed Tapering Employment plummeted well below consensus estimates, rising by only 74,000 jobs in December compared to the survey forecast that expected almost 200,000 jobs. We believe that much of the decline is due to one-time seasonal quirks and we could see some payback in the coming months. The […]
Continue ReadingEnd of the Year Data Signal Stronger Q4 Growth · Personal income rose a slight 0.2 percent in November with wage and salary income increasing 0.4 percent for the month. Personal spending continued to accelerate, rising 0.5 percent, driven, in part, by services spending. · Durable goods orders rebounded in November, posting a 3.5 […]
Continue ReadingA Little Less Punch in an Awfully Big Bowl · Citing progress in the labor market and more balanced risks to the outlook, the FOMC has decided to begin scaling back the pace of its asset purchases in January. The Fed will reduce its monthly purchases by $10 billion to $75 billion. · Industrial […]
Continue ReadingFinding a Better Balance at Year-End · The majority of recent economic reports easily exceed the cautious expectations laid out for the holiday season and the fourth quarter. · The JOLTS reported a slight pickup in job openings during October. The number of open positions is higher than at any time since the recession […]
Continue ReadingIs Tapering on the Fed’s Gift List? · November employment numbers were stronger than expected and the unemployment rate slid to a level once consistent with the end of quantitative easing. · Housing market data are weaker than they were earlier in the year, but the recovery remains intact. · The 2014 Economic Outlook […]
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