Bank of the West U.S. Outlook Report for October 2, 2015 US Outlook Report: The U.S. Consumer Hangs In There – For Now We got encouraging reports this week that consumers continued to spend at a rapid clip in August and their confidence in September may not be as dented by global market turmoil as […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s Employment Report for September Job Growth Stumbles in September; +142K vs. Consensus Exp. +201K Unemployment Rate Steady at 5.1% July and August Job Numbers Revised Down a Net -59K Avg. Hourly Earnings Flat +0.0% (+2.2% y-o-y) Labor Force Participation Falls to 62.4% Job Losses in Manufacturing and Mining- Service Sector Job […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West U.S. Outlook Report for September 25, 2015 US Outlook Report: More Signs of Weakness in Global Production We received more confirmation this week that global manufacturing activity in September continues to slow, though there are no clear signs, yet, of a global recession. Preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI’s fell in Germany, the […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West U.S. Outlook Report for September 18, 2015 US Outlook Report: Low Inflation Gets the Fed’s Attention The Fed cited risks to the U.S. economic outlook from global economic and financial developments, but what really got the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates in September was the recent behavior and […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s September FOMC Meeting FOMC Delays – no interest rate hike in September, still planning one this year Cites recent global economic and financial developments Could restrain economic activity and put further downward pressure on inflation FOMC scales back median rate hike projections for 2015, 2016 and 2017 by 0.25% Almost a […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West US Outlook Report: Start the Pre-Game Show It’s almost game time. Like the pre-game show before the Super Bowl, we are hearing non-stop commentary about next week’s FOMC decision and Yellen press conference. You are probably either tired of hearing about it by now, or so excited you’re already reaching for […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West U.S. Outlook Report: Right Down the Pike- Now What? Like a pitcher that’s on fire, U.S. economic data keeps coming in right across the plate. Just as we tipped readers off too last week, the U.S. economic data has remained resilient despite the nervous Nellies on Wall Street. The August payroll report […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Tallying Up the Damage from Financial Panic Global investor confidence rapidly eroded this week before recovering some poise by week end, doing noticeable damage to global and U.S. stock market wealth. The selling pressure was mitigated temporarily as China jumped in on Tuesday with across the board 25-basis-point cuts to their monetary […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West US Outlook Report: Conflicting Signals from the Fed Minutes Bond investors, parsing the FOMC minutes from the July meeting, sensed hesitation about the timing of the first interest rate hike from the Fed and have since soundly convinced themselves that a move in September is virtually off the table. The Fed […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West US Outlook Report: Dispatches from China Just when the July employment report and the markets suggested smooth sailing for the Fed to lift interest rates as soon as September (on Friday the futures market implied probability of a September Fed funds rate hike increased to 54%, the highest it has been […]
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