US Outlook Report: Growth Trends Have Flipped on Their Head Nearly two years ago we wrote a piece on how impressive the economic performance of oil producing states was in 2013 and noted how their performance outpaced the nation by a large margin. Today, in the midst of sinking commodity prices, volatile equity markets, […]
Continue ReadingWells Fargo Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary 2015 Ends With a Whimper GDP in the final quarter of 2015 slowed to a 0.7 percent annualized pace on slower consumer spending, a bigger drag from trade and a further correction in inventories. · Durable goods orders fell 5.1 percent in December, as weakness in the manufacturing […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis: FOMC statement for January A lot of dovish hints in the January FOMC statement today, but nothing concrete. Hence the negative reaction from the stock market today. I think the Fed is on hold right now and hasn’t made up its mind yet if the global market volatility and economic developments in China […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Keep One Eye on the Fundamentals Periods of high financial market volatility and plunging oil prices like we have seen so far this year have a way of playing on your emotions. It’s easy to sour on the economic outlook when really your stock portfolio is what’s making you a little queasy. […]
Continue ReadingMixed Data in a Holiday-Shortened Week The latest read on consumer spending was encouraging as personal income grew 0.3 percent in November. This was a bit faster than expected and enough to keep pace with the 0.3 percent increase in real personal spending during the month. The manufacturing sector still faces challenges as the durable […]
Continue ReadingWells Fargo Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Go for Launch Today’s employment report, the last key data release ahead of the Fed’s Dec. 16 meeting, showed the labor market continues to improve at a solid rate. Payrolls rose by 211,000 in November, while the unemployment rate held at 5.0 percent amid an increase in participation. […]
Continue ReadingDespite Some Noise, Improving Trend Continues Inflation data were generally softer than expected in October. The import price index declined sharply and the producer price index unexpectedly declined. Although it appears businesses have little pricing power at the moment, building wage pressures should lead to a firming price environment in the future. Labor market turnover […]
Continue ReadingSanta More Likely to Bring Rate Rise This December Job growth came roaring back in October, with payrolls increasing 271,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 5.0 percent and average hourly earnings rose a solid 0.4 percent. The ISM reports for October showed further divergence in the path of the manufacturing and service […]
Continue ReadingWeak Third Quarter, but Better Days Ahead Economic activity lost some of its momentum in the third quarter. Real GDP growth rose at a 1.5 percent-annual pace, but much of the drag was due to a slowdown in inventory building. Real private sales to domestic purchasers, which is a better gauge of final demand, strengthened […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Ignore the Headline Q3 GDP Report Was Solid Third quarter U.S. real GDP growth came in a touch lighter than our forecast at 1.5%, and was a big deterioration from the second quarter’s 3.9% real GDP growth, but in this instance the headline is deceiving. Our view is that third quarter […]
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