Instant Analysis of Today’s December FOMC Decision The Fed Successfully Delivered a Dovish FOMC Statement and a Rate Hike Today FOMC raised the target range on the Fed Funds target rate to 25 to 50 basis points Fed Dot Plot Median Still pointing to four quarter-point rate hikes in 2016 Central tendency of the Fed […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: A Few Modest Misses Won’t Deter a Fed Hike The last full week of U.S. economic releases, before what arguably is the biggest FOMC meeting in nine years, came in on the underwhelming side. Labor market indicators from the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) for November, Job openings for October, and […]
Continue ReadingWells Fargo Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Go for Launch Today’s employment report, the last key data release ahead of the Fed’s Dec. 16 meeting, showed the labor market continues to improve at a solid rate. Payrolls rose by 211,000 in November, while the unemployment rate held at 5.0 percent amid an increase in participation. […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: What to Expect in 2016 2016 is right around-the-corner. I haven’t even finished all my holiday shopping yet, and I am still working on Thanksgiving leftovers, but the New Year will be here before you know it. In this week’s US Outlook Report, we give you a little preview of what you […]
Continue ReadingDespite Some Noise, Improving Trend Continues Inflation data were generally softer than expected in October. The import price index declined sharply and the producer price index unexpectedly declined. Although it appears businesses have little pricing power at the moment, building wage pressures should lead to a firming price environment in the future. Labor market turnover […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Will Small Business Confidence Ever Recover? The pessimism among small business owners throughout this expansion is unprecedented. According to data from the National Association of Independent Businesses, this is the slowest recovery in small business confidence ever coming out of recession, going all the way back to the mid-1970’s. Small business optimism […]
Continue ReadingSanta More Likely to Bring Rate Rise This December Job growth came roaring back in October, with payrolls increasing 271,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 5.0 percent and average hourly earnings rose a solid 0.4 percent. The ISM reports for October showed further divergence in the path of the manufacturing and service […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: It’s All About The Jobs There were more hits than misses this week with the U.S. economic indicators. The October jobs report revealed a solid improvement in job creation from the prior two months, solidifying expectations for better economic growth in the fourth quarter. This will likely trigger an initial interest rate […]
Continue ReadingWeak Third Quarter, but Better Days Ahead Economic activity lost some of its momentum in the third quarter. Real GDP growth rose at a 1.5 percent-annual pace, but much of the drag was due to a slowdown in inventory building. Real private sales to domestic purchasers, which is a better gauge of final demand, strengthened […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Ignore the Headline Q3 GDP Report Was Solid Third quarter U.S. real GDP growth came in a touch lighter than our forecast at 1.5%, and was a big deterioration from the second quarter’s 3.9% real GDP growth, but in this instance the headline is deceiving. Our view is that third quarter […]
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