Economics Group: Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary – U.S Review Slower Pace of Job Growth but Improvement Continues January’s nonfarm payroll report showed that 257,000 jobs were added for the month. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.7 percent. Average hourly earnings, which fell in December, rose 0.5 percent in January. The ISM reports for January […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group: Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary – U.S Review Mixed Signals on the Domestic Front The U.S. economy grew at a 2.6 percent annualized pace in the final quarter of 2014. The outturn was weaker than expectations. Equipment spending fell at a 1.9 percent annualized pace as businesses put cap-ex plans on hold, in part, […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group: Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary – U.S Review U.S. Manufacturers Facing Headwinds U.S. manufacturers were already struggling with a stronger U.S. dollar when the currency appreciated further against the Euro and Canadian dollar as central bankers in those regions made unexpected moves. The negative effects of oil are also starting to show up […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group: Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary – U.S Review Oil Price Declines Influence Economic Data Retail sales posted a larger-than-expected drop in December. We attribute the bulk of the decline to much lower inflation, however, the broad-based nature of the pullback remained a bit concerning but should not derail Q4 GDP growth. NFIB’s small business […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group: Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary – U.S Review Finishing the Year Strong Annual payroll gains in 2014 were the strongest since 1999. Growth was broad-based across industries, but the labor force and average hourly earnings declined in December. Data from the factory sector continue to send mixed signals, with factory orders dropping for the […]
Continue ReadingTime to Pop the Champagne or Put a Cork in It? Third-quarter GDP was revised upward to a 5.0 percent annualized pace, the strongest clip in 11 years. The upward revision stemmed largely from better consumer spending. Consumer spending looks to be continuing at a decent pace in the fourth quarter. Personal spending rose 0.6 […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group: Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary U.S. Review A Busy Week for Fiscal and Monetary Policy With three dissenters, the FOMC slightly tweaked its language describing the period of time between the end of the QE program and when the first rate hike would take place. November industrial production data showed an impressive pace of […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group: Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary U.S. Review Consumer Spending Leading the Charge in Q4 Retail sales posted an impressive 0.7 percent increase in November following an upwardly revised 0.5 percent increase for October. The jump in sales was the strongest monthly reading in eight months. On the inflation front, import prices fell 1.5 […]
Continue ReadingPolicy tightening, shifting dynamics in the domestic economy and slower global growth has changed the game for the economic environment. Despite our expectations for firmer growth in 2015, the economy will enter uncharted territory as businesses and consumers navigate the path to normalization of rates, a flatter yield curve, and structural reforms in other economies. […]
Continue ReadingEconomics Group: Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary U.S. Review Blockbuster Payrolls Set the Tone Nonfarm payrolls surged 321,000 in November, as the workweek and average hourly earnings picked up. The employment report, coupled with lower gas prices, bodes well for consumption in the fourth quarter. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices remained firmly in expansion territory, […]
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