Weak Growth in 1H 2016- What’s Next? The advance estimate of Q2 GDP revealed a modest improvement in U.S. economic growth to a 1.2 annualized rate up from a revised sluggish 0.8 percent growth pace in the first quarter. Real GDP growth averaged just 1.0 in the first half of 2016. The initial estimate of […]
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US Outlook Report: Economy Dancing to a Different Beat Before Brexit raised the level of global economic uncertainty at the end of June, the U.S. economy was clearly experiencing a growth spurt that has largely laid to rest investors’ concerns since the start of the year about an impending U.S. recession – even with a […]
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US Outlook Report: A Few Breaks in the Clouds this Week Financial volatility continues to calm in the aftermath of the U.K. vote. The S&P VIX index, a measure of expected stock market volatility, has hit new lows in recent days, as the S&P 500 has hit record highs. We think a combination of positive […]
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US Outlook Report: A Rock Solid Employment Report for June A hot June employment report belies weak U.S. job growth in April and May and is an important support for the second-quarter recovery in consumer spending and GDP growth we are forecasting. While a rebound in U.S. employment growth in June was expected, the […]
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Bank of the West US Outlook Report for June 3, 2016 The mixed picture of U.S. economic growth continued this week and the May jobs number was more than disappointing. April construction spending plunged on weaker public and non-residential construction activity, while regional manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes and the national ISM manufacturing index remained moribund […]
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US Outlook Report: Setting Up for a Better Second Half Sometimes teams that play a lackluster first-half go into the locker-room at half-time and emerge so energized they play like a completely different team. Now, nearly two-thirds of the way through the second quarter the U.S. economy is about to go into the locker-room for […]
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US Outlook Report: Housing Market Doing Just Fine A number of indicators will be released next week that will reveal the latest developments in the U.S. housing market. Despite the scary drop in housing starts and permits last month, the upcoming housing data for April should appear more reassuring. The current low interest-rate environment, healthy […]
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US Outlook Report: Gearing Up For the Big Week Ahead Next week will be a big one for investors. A full plate of tier-one economic indicators – from March durable goods orders to the advanced estimate of first-quarter GDP – are due to be released. If that isn’t enough to get your engine reviving, […]
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US Outlook Report: Retail Sales Slip Again in March March retail sales came in lower-than-expected, down 0.3 percent, ending a disappointing first quarter for consumer spending. The consensus expectation for the headline figure was for a slight increase of 0.1 percent, considering sustained improvement in other areas of the economy and vanishing effects of the […]
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US Outlook Report: The Labor Market thorough a Different Prism Through the lens of the March jobs report, the U.S. labor market recovery continues unabated. Nonfarm payroll job gains came in about as we expected at +215K jobs and better than the consensus estimated. But by focusing on the headline numbers, are we only seeing […]
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