U.S. Outlook: The fixed income market just blinked Published: 02/13/15 Posted by Scott Anderson Chief Economist To quote the great Clint Eastwood, U.S. bond and money markets seem to have been saying to the Fed, “Go ahead…make my day!” Or maybe, “You’ve got to ask yourself one question: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ Well, do you […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West US Outlook Report for February 6, 2015 Doomsday newspaper articles are being written about deflation these days. Most look across the pond toward Europe and extrapolate that the United States is next in line to suffer from stagnant growth and declining prices. While we are forecasting deflation in both Europe and […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s Employment Report for January Job Creation Exceeded Expectations in January; +257K vs. Consensus Exp. +228K Wage growth Accelerates- Average Hourly Earnings up +0.5%; (+2.2% Y-o-Y) November and December Job Numbers Revised Up a Net +147K Unemployment Rate Rises 0.1% to 5.7% as Labor Force Participation Improves Job Growth in All Major […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West US Outlook Report for January 30, 2015 The data released this week was a dramatic illustration of the cross-currents impacting the U.S. economy, and a good indicator of how the year is likely to shape up. The good news is the overall growth outlook for the United States remains intact, even […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West US Outlook Report for January 23, 2015 After three rounds of quantitative easing, the Fed is remaining on the sidelines as global central banks from the ECB, Canada, Peru, Switzerland, Denmark and India all made moves this month to loosen monetary policy and head off economic and deflation risks. The ECB’s […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West US Outlook Report for January 16, 2015 After a string of better than expected economic indicators from third quarter GDP, December employment, and broadly improving small business sentiment, the retail sales decline of 0.9 percent in December was a disappointment. On an annualized basis, retail sales, excluding vehicles and parts, declined […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West US Outlook Report for January 9, 2015 With recent sharp swings in oil, foreign exchange, and equity markets, it appears the markets are trying to tell us something. But what? In this week’s outlook report we focus on three themes the markets have fixated on: the drop in oil, the appreciation […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s Employment Report for December Job Creation Solid in December; +252K vs. Consensus Exp. +240K Nearly 3.0 Million Net New Jobs Created in 2014 October and November Job Numbers Revised Up a Net +50K Unemployment Rate Falls 0.2% to 5.6% as Labor Force Contracts Job Growth in All Major Sectors Business Services […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: GDP with a 5.0 Handle- What Does it Mean? The U.S. economy confidently shifted to a higher gear of expansion in the third quarter of 2014, growing at an impressive 5.0 percent annualized rate, according to the “third” estimate of real GDP, reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was the […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Three Trends to Watch for in 2015 Number One: Rising Interest Rates. For the first time since 2006, the Federal Reserve is signaling that they will raise the Fed funds target rate, their key monetary policy interest rate, sometime next year. As of today, it appears the FOMC is penciling in […]
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