California Resiliency Alliance: Wildfire Outlook Reports

Wildfire Outlook Reports

These reports are produced by the National Interagency Fire Center’s Predictive Services.
  • National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
  • Northern California Operations Monthly & Seasonal Outlook (July – October)
  • Southern & Central California Operations Monthly & Seasonal Outlook (July – October)
Northern California 
  • July & August – Above Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected across the Sacramento Valley and Foothills, eastern Bay Area, northern Sierra Mountains, northeastern California, and the Far East Side
  • September & October – Above Normal area will include the entire Bay Area, the Mid Coast, northwestern mountains, Sacramento Valley and Foothills, and the Northern Sierra Predictive Service Areas.
  • Weather Outlook– Warmer and drier than average weather conditions. A semi-persistent low pressure trough is expected to develop along the West Coast this summer which may lead to less than average lightning in western areas. Lightning activity in eastern areas is expected to be closer to average. 
Southern California 
  • July – Above Normal significant wildland fire potential is expected along the coast and foothills across Southern California and the hills and mountains surrounding the central valley. 
  • August through October – all area can expect Above Normal significant wildland fire potential except for the desert and the irrigated farmlands in the central valley.
  • Monsoon Season – Long range models indicate this may be a more active than usual Monsoon Season across the Southwest. But the cold pool of water over the southeastern Gulf of Alaska and off the British Columbian coast may keep troughs over areas to our north much of the summer. This would, in turn, lead to a prevailing southwesterly flow aloft which may keep most of the subtropical moisture associated with the Southwestern Monsoon well east of the state. Therefore near to slightly above average temperatures are expected this summer into fall along with below average precipitation. 
  • Warmer and drier than normal through August, then dry with near normal temperatures
  • N-NE/Offshore wind events less common July-August, returning September-October
  • Below normal amount of lightning western areas and slightly below normal eastern areas
  • Heavier fuel moisture and soil moisture declining ahead of normal at all elevations
  • Above Normal Large Fire Potential central and eastern areas July- August. Western areas added to Above Normal area and East/Northeast areas removed in September- October
  • ENSO neutral through the summer. Increasing chances of El Niño in the fall
  • Slightly above normal temperatures this summer into the fall – greatest departure across inland areas.
  • Slightly below normal number of summer thunderstorms outside the eastern deserts.
  • Above normal large fire potential spreading from south to north.
  • Greatest large fire potential in the Sierra Foothills.

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