Bank of the West US Outlook Report: Fixed Income Markets On the Move We are seeing a dramatic sell-off in global fixed income markets that it appears is driven by vigorous selling of Eurozone sovereign bonds, but is also spilling over into the U.S. and elsewhere around the world. Indeed in the last week alone, […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: An Encouraging Upward Revision We got a number of somewhat better U.S. economic reports this week, mostly from the housing market, but the upward revisions in the April durable goods report were the most encouraging development for U.S. economic growth prospects over the near-term. Prior to the April release, the durable goods […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: U.S. Economy Muddling Along Do you ever get the feeling you are just going through the motions, muddling through, but your heart just isn’t in it. Well that’s how the U.S. economy’s performance has felt over the last six months. Just as the Fed was about to sound the all clear and […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Consumers Still Holding Back in April We can’t blame bad weather for another month of disappointing retail sales. The April retail sales numbers suggest weaker real consumer spending growth in Q2 than previously expected. A stronger consumer is needed to offset weak business investment and declining exports. At least through April it […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s Employment Report for April Job Creation In-Line with Expectations in April; +223K vs. Consensus Exp. +228K Unemployment Rate Drops one tenth to 5.4% March Job Numbers Revised Down a Net -41K to just +85K Avg. Hourly Earnings up a Modest 0.1% (+2.2% y-o-y) Labor Force Participation Improves Job Growth in All […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Uneven Growth with Whiffs of Higher Prices This week’s U.S. Trade report for March revealed an even more lopsided trade performance than was estimated in the Q1 Advance Real GDP report released last week. Continued weakness in U.S. exports and a surprisingly strong rebound in imports, as delays under the West Coast […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: U.S. Growth Has Slowed; Transitory or Not? Well it’s official. The Q1 preliminary GDP report, released this week, showed the broad extent of the economic damage from a combination of a rising dollar, drop in oil prices, and another winter for the record books. The question now is how much of the […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West: Instant Analysis of Today’s GDP Report for Q1 2015 U.S. Q1 Real GDP Growth Stalls, Worse Than Advertised; +0.2% Annualized in Q1 Business investment, Exports, and Government Spending All Declined Consumer Spending Was As Weak As Expected (+1.9%) Down From +4.4% growth in Q4 Goods Exports Plunge (-13.3%) and Structures Drop […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West U.S. Outlook Report for April 24, 2015 US Outlook Report: Monetary Policy Tighter without Tightening With the April FOMC meeting on tap for next week, and everyone, including me, looking for the Fed to delay somewhat its initial rate hike until September, I thought now would be a good time to […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West U.S. Outlook Report for April 17, 2015 US Outlook Report: Is Housing Ever Going to Recover? This week brought another round of lackluster housing news. Housing permits went south dropping 5.7 percent on the month. Building permits often lead housing starts by 1 to 3 months, suggesting homebuilding could remain moribund […]
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