It’s Shaping Up to Be a Soft Quarter · Housing market data looked better this week with both existing and new home sales rising in February. · Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in February as oil prices edged higher for the month. · Durable goods orders pulled back sharply in February, but even more concerning […]
Continue ReadingBank of the West U.S. Outlook Report for March 27, 2015 – US Outlook Report: What Does the Drop in New Orders Mean? What’s the saying, “Get used to disappointment”? Despite expectations for stabilization, durable goods orders for February remained weaker than expected, dropping another 1.4% on the month. Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, […]
Continue ReadingMixed Economic Data and A Cautious Fed This week’s FOMC meeting statement dropped the word patient but the tone remained very dovish. Industrial production activity remained modest in February after posting a decline in January. Data on February housing starts showed a sharp decline in new construction activity; however, permitting data looked more promising for […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: FOMC Scales Back Rate Hike Expectations The large gap between the Federal Open Market Committee’s Fed funds target rate expectations and the market’s own projections about the future path of the Fed’s rate policy closed rapidly this week and it wasn’t the market adjusting to the Fed, it was the Fed bringing […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s March FOMC Statement FOMC removes “patient” language- a June or Sept. liftoff on the table, April ruled out. New guidance – FOMC must see further improvement in the labor market and be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 percent over medium term Fewer “Hawks” on the Committee pushes […]
Continue ReadingWells Fargo Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary – March 13, 2015 Consumers in Winter Hibernation? Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6 percent in February. Sales looked to have been depressed by the harsh winter weather that hit parts of the country during the month, with the biggest monthly declines occurring at auto retailers and building material […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: The Curious Case of Missing Retail Sales Here we go again. February retail sales once again missed economists’ expectations, falling 0.6 percent on the month after a steep 0.8 percent monthly decline in January. This caps three consecutive months now of declining retail sales. Looked at in a vacuum, such an atrocious […]
Continue ReadingWells Fargo Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary – March 6, 2015 – Plenty of Momentum in the Labor Market Nonfarm payrolls added 295,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.5 percent. Gains were broad-based, but average hourly earnings barely grew. The strong payroll number bodes well for consumer spending, which continued to […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Insights from the Beige Book Report Usually the Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve is a pretty boring read, largely a descriptive analysis of various regions and sectors of our economy. Economists often end up just counting up the positive to negative words to gauge any new insights on the Fed’s […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s Employment Report for February Job Creation Exceeded Expectations in February; +295K vs. Consensus Exp. +235K Unemployment Rate Drops two tenths to 5.5% December and January Job Numbers Revised Down a Net -18K Avg. Hourly Earnings up a Modest 0.1% (+2.0% y-o-y) Labor Force Participation Slips Job Growth in All Major Sectors […]
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