Next week’s economic indicators should highlight the strength and resilience of the U.S. economic expansion. But whether it will be enough to distract investors from the near-term political risks coming from Washington, including raising the debt ceiling, passing a FY 2018 federal budget, and getting tax reform done, is still an open question. For what […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Global Malaise The global economy continues to be one of the biggest risks for the U.S. economy over the near-term. As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meetings conclude in Washington DC, we received another sobering dose of forecasts from the IMF after years of global growth disappointment. The IMF, decrying […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Mystery of the Steepening Yield Curve I guess I have been watching too many Sherlock Homes episodes on Netflix, but the sharp steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve since the beginning of September deserves some sleuthing. The 10-2 Year Treasury spread has increased by some 20 basis points over the last […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Economy Dancing to a Different Beat Before Brexit raised the level of global economic uncertainty at the end of June, the U.S. economy was clearly experiencing a growth spurt that has largely laid to rest investors’ concerns since the start of the year about an impending U.S. recession – even with a […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: A Rock Solid Employment Report for June A hot June employment report belies weak U.S. job growth in April and May and is an important support for the second-quarter recovery in consumer spending and GDP growth we are forecasting. While a rebound in U.S. employment growth in June was expected, the […]
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