US Outlook Report: Good Vibes Here Policy Easing There The first round of U.S. economic releases for August have largely beaten analyst expectations, suggesting that much of the economic momentum seen in the second quarter will be sustained in the third. We maintain our U.S. Real GDP forecast at 3.1 percent for the third quarter. […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Trouble Abroad Left to itself, the U.S. economy appears to be on a solid and sustainable path for growth. The overall strength of U.S. economic data continue to impress analysts with positive surprises far outweighing negative ones so far in August. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators Index is in the midst […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Is Housing Getting Back On Its Feet? A spate of housing indicators released this week revealed some positive developments for the U.S. housing market that has been noticeably absent for much of this summer. Homebuilder confidence is rebounding faster than expected. The National Association of Homebuilders’ (NAHB) housing market index beat consensus […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Fragile or Not Fragile? That is the Question This week’s data were a mosaic of strong and sluggish economic indicators, still signaling some lingering weaknesses in the economy. On one hand, we have improving optimism coming from small business, robust industrial production growth, and greater-than-expected job openings and labor turnover (JOLTs) reported […]
Continue ReadingU.S. Outlook Report: Unclogging The Credit Channel Ever since the financial crisis hit in 2007, the U.S. bank credit channel has been clogged. Endemic weak demand for credit and tightened lending standards have been contributing to lackluster economic growth. The most recent results from the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q3 suggest the era […]
Continue ReadingWe got an exciting second-quarter GDP report this week. The nation’s most important economic indicator, the real GDP, grew at an annualized rate of 4.0 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, rebounding from a 2.1 percent decline in the first quarter. The first-quarter GDP reading was revised up from negative 2.9 percent reported […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s Employment Report for July Job Market Simmers in July; +209K vs. Consensus Exp. +230K July Jobs Report Somewhat Weaker Than Expected May and June Job Numbers Revised Up a Net +15K Unemployment Rate Increases to 6.2% as Labor Force Participation Rate Rises to 62.9% Goods Sector Employment Accelerates; Private Services Job […]
Continue ReadingU.S. Outlook Report: Don’t Get Complacent About the Deficit The volume of political dialogue surrounding the U.S. budget deficit and debt has dropped a few notches with the economy strengthening, tax revenues on the rise, and the tax ceiling suspended until March 15, 2015. Federal deficits have declined for five consecutive years, from a 2009 peak […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report– Manufacturing: A Window into the Economy If you delve into recent industrial production and manufacturing data you’ll see something striking about the health and direction of the broader economy. In short, the data suggests that overall economic growth is accelerating again in July, and, secondly and more importantly, the U.S. economy is […]
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