US Outlook Report: Factoring in a Global Downturn into the U.S. Outlook Financial market volatility has returned with a vengeance. The S&P 500 is down about 6.0% over the past month. The financial carnage in Europe has been even more dramatic. The German DAX and French CAC index have both lost over 10% in U.S. […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Fear Replaces Greed on Wall Street The IMF dropped a grenade on the stock market this week. Marking down the global growth outlook for this year for the seventh time to 3.3% and trimming expectations again for growth next year. The biggest cuts to the global GDP outlook came from […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Taking the Temperature of the Consumer Consumer spending was back on track in August, growing 0.5 percent in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms from zero growth in July that was upwardly revised from -0.1 percent. The August figure was somewhat above consensus expectations of 68 economists surveyed on Bloomberg. Real consumer spending […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s Employment Report for September Job Creation Jumps in September; +248K vs. Consensus Exp. +215K Job Growth Numbers Now More In-Line with Other U.S. Indicators July and August Job Numbers Revised Up a Net +69K Unemployment Rate falls to 5.9% as Labor Force Participation Rate Drops to 62.7% Job Growth Accelerates For […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: What’s In Store for September Payrolls Firm readings on the economy bode well for September payrolls. Not only did we get a huge final upward revision to second-quarter GDP to 4.6 percent, the U.S. economy appears to be holding on to much of its momentum in the third quarter. A stronger than […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: Financial Services Catches The Wave of Growth We already knew the U.S. economy grew last year, but we just got some interesting detail by industry and at the metro level on where growth is occurring. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate of 2013 and revised 2001-2012 […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s September FOMC Statement Confusion reigns as the Fed appears to be over communicating. The more hawkish dot-plot forecast on the Fed fund target rate doesn’t jive with cut in the GDP growth outlook and dovish official statement. There was something for everyone in today’s FOMC meeting materials: the statement, summary of […]
Continue ReadingUS Outlook Report: It’s All About the Labor Market With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week and releasing its latest forecasts on the economy and Fed funds rate, markets will be probing for signs that the Fed may move up its timetable for the first interest rate hike. The headline unemployment rate has […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s Retail Sales Report for August Bottom-line, retail sales rebounded strongly in August as we expected, but we also got a bonus upward revision to July’s retail sales to a positive 0.3% from an originally reported 0.0% reading. The new July retail sales estimate is more in-line with the robust consumer […]
Continue ReadingInstant Analysis of Today’s Employment Report for August The August jobs report was a buzz-kill this morning. The labor department reported only +142K net nonfarm jobs were created last month, about 88K jobs short of my expectations. The rationalizing begins with analysts pointing out that seasonal adjustment is very difficult in the month of August […]
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